
Probable Cause of the Eruption.
To hazard a theory for so stupendous a cataclysm without first obtaining the most complete data on which to build, would appear reckless and unscientific; but the amount of data already accumulated, and the certainty that many months must elapse before a complete investigation of Tarawera and Rotomahana can be made, prompts us to advance a theory based on known laws, the working of which has been a source of wonder and attraction, and of world-wide interest, centring in Rotomahana. Here, as we are well aware, rose the beautiful terraces of Te

Tarata and Otukapuarangi; here also were geysers, ngawhas, mud-springs, steam-holes, solfataras and fumaroles, each and all pouring out in larger or smaller quantities its volume of heated water until the lake itself was fully deserving of its name, “Rotomahana,” (warm lake), and its effluent Kaiwaka was worthy of a similar distinction. Now, the body of water debouching from this lake was large and continuous, and many millions of gallons were daily discharged into the Tarawera Lake. If now we turn to Rotomahana, and witness the effects of these hot springs and geysers, we find an amount of sinter deposited which is surprising, for though we have been used to speak of the two terraces, there were several others in a state of decadence or fragmentary condition, while lavishly around us were the evidences of sinter deposit. Year after year, probably for centuries, had this deposition gone on, though only a tithe of the silica which rose in solution had been arrested. Fortunately these waters have been analysed, the results of Mr. Skey's examination showing the water from the White Terrace to be charged with mineral matter to the extent of 144 grains to the gallon, and from the Pink Terrace 154 grains. Accepting this as equal for all the springs so constantly at work, we shall have in the course of years a very large amount of rock material withdrawn from the earth, most probably leaving cavernous spaces, and a weakening of the earth's crust locally. It required then only some local disturbance of the earth's crust to precipitate the falling-in of these spaces, which would have occurred sooner or later without such disturbance.
There can be no question that the first outbreak came from the Tarawera Mountain, caused probably by some slow-moving earth-wave, evidences of which we have already adduced. This in itself was sufficient to cause a precipitation of the weakened honeycombed rocks through which the waters of the Rotomakariri Lake would make their way into the chasm, and, coming into contact with a large surface of the molten rock, would be followed by a terrible convulsion, the escaping steam ripping up the side of the mountain in the manner already described. Water rushed down on the heated rocks only to be driven back and dissipated into the surrounding space, together with the fragmentary matter and dust resulting from the shock. The water from the Rotomahana Lake would then be driven up, together with the steam and debritic mass, to fall over long distances in the form of mud, as we now see it, until the water had been repelled from the lake, and with it the solid material of its bed. By this action the bed of the lake has been lowered, and its sides greatly extended, while there can be but little doubt that the whole of the terrace formation has been swept away.
That the long dormant mass of molten lava underlying it extended no further, is very questionable, and the evidences of

the further extension in a S.W. direction are shown by the length of the rift extending to Rotomahana, thence by its entire length, and finally proceeding in the direction of Okaro Lake for a mile and a half. Here we find its effects very violent, the active craters already described not being built up, but blown directly out of the rhyolitic rock.
But all speculations of this kind are premature, in view of the paucity of information with regard to the present state of the interior of the lake crater. We merely bring them forward to incite inquiry, and thereby arrive at the whole truth of the questions involved.
We cannot close without a tribute to the memory of the dead. That this disaster should have had so fatal a result is a matter of great sorrow. Awoke by the roaring of subterranean thunder, by repeated shocks of the moving earth, awed by the fearful scenes of fire and lightning, apparently emitted by a mountain close in their vicinity, with hope of escape cut off, and the despair and uncertainty of unknown and unexperienced terrors, not less than 102 of the poor Natives must have gazed in fear; until with a terrible roar the lake beside them was belched out to cover and obliterate them, their villages and lands, and leave no trace of what had been their homes and cultivations for many years.
Nor can we think without deep regret that some of those Europeans at Wairoa who had viewed the grandeur of this wonderful outburst for hours, from apparently so safe a position, should have succumbed to the storm which raged so soon afterwards. Long, indeed, will it be before the name of Wairoa will be forgotten, or the memory of this beautiful valley, which was transformed into a mournful desert in a few hours.

| Dust Ash or Mud | Lapilli | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | 2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7. | 8. | |
| Soluble on heating in hydrochloric acid and water, equal quantities— | Okaro. | Wairoa. | Tauranga. | Whakatane. | Opotiki. | Wairoa. | Pareheru. | Rotoehu. |
| Silica | .35 | .20 | .35 | .65 | .60 | .50 | .70 | .50 |
| Iron Oxides | 2.05 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 2.90 | 3.20 | 3.90 | 3.85 | 3.50 |
| Alumina | 3.45 | 2.80 | 5.01 | 4.45 | 3.90 | 3.70 | 4.95 | 6.60 |
| Lime | .95 | .67 | 2.01 | 1.92 | 2.10 | 1.79 | 2.14 | 2.65 |
| Magnesia | .20 | .30 | .30 | .47 | .80 | .67 | .45 | .70 |
| Soda | .33 | .37 | .58 | .64 | .59 | .70 | .84 | .67 |
| Potash | .16 | .19 | .18 | .17 | .17 | .14 | .16 | .09 |
| Chlorine | .05 | .07 | .03 | .04 | .06 | .04 | .05 | - |
| Phosphoric Acid | .09 | .09 | .14 | .095 | .125 | .16 | .125 | .06 |
| Sulphuric Acid | .39 | .32 | .48 | .35 | .30 | .22 | .41 | - |
| Carbonic Oxide | Tr. | Tr. | Tr. | Tr. | Tr. | Tr. | Tr. | Tr. |
| Organic Matter | 1.30 | 1.30 | .90 | .20 | .25 | - | - | - |
| Water | .85 | .90 | .75 | .30 | .15 | - | .25 | - |
| Insoluble in acid— | ||||||||
| Silica | 66.50 | 69.90 | 63.65 | 56.50 | 55.70 | 50.4 | 50.65 | 52.10 |
| Iron Oxides | 4.00 | 2.65 | 4.20 | 8.65 | 8.30 | 10.20 | 10.65 | 9.20 |
| Alumina | 14.50 | 13.15 | 13.15 | 13.90 | 13.80 | 16.30 | 13.25 | 11.70 |
| Lime | 2.90 | 1.93 | 3.41 | 6.44 | 6.35 | 8.59 | 8.12 | 8.40 |
| Magnesia | Tr. | Tr. | 1.60 | .90 | 1.40 | 2.10 | 2.65 | 3.95 |
| 97.07 | 97.34 | 99.74 | 98.57 | 97.795 | 99.415 | 99.245 | 100.12 |

| Form. | Locality. | Silica. | Iron Oxide. | Alumina. | Lime. | Magnesia. | Soda. | Potash. | Chlorine. | Phosphoric Acid. | Sulphuric Acid. | Organic Matter. | Water. | Total. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ash | 1. Okaro | 66.85 | 6.05 | 17.95 | 3.85 | .20 | .33 | .16 | .05 | .09 | .39 | 1.30 | .85 | 97.07 |
| Mud | 2. Wairoa | 70.10 | 5.15 | 15.95 | 2.60 | .30 | .37 | .19 | .07 | .09 | .32 | 1.30 | .90 | 97.34 |
| Dust | 3. Tauranga | 64.00 | 7.20 | 18.16 | 5.42 | 1.90 | .58 | .18 | .03 | .14 | .48 | .90 | .75 | 99.74 |
| Ash | 4. Whakatane | 57.15 | 11.55 | 18.35 | 8.36 | 1.37 | .64 | .17 | .04 | .095 | .35 | .20 | .30 | 98.57 |
| " | 5. Opotiki | 56.30 | 11.50 | 17.70 | 8.45 | 2.20 | .59 | .17 | .06 | .125 | .30 | .25 | .15 | 97.795 |
| Lapilli | 6. Wairoa | 50.90 | 14.10 | 20.00 | 10.38 | 2.77 | .70 | .14 | .04 | .16 | .22 | - | - | 99.415 |
| " | 7. Pareheru | 51.35 | 14.50 | 18.20 | 10.26 | 3.10 | .84 | .16 | .05 | .125 | .41 | - | .25 | 99.245 |
| " | 8. Rotoehu | 52.60 | 12.70 | 18.30 | 11.05 | 4.65 | .67 | .09 | - | .06 | - | - | - | 100.12 |
