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Volume 21, 1888
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Probable Position of Epicentrum.

There are three different kinds of evidence which will help us to find the probable position and shape of the epicentrum:—

(1.)

The intensity of the shock in different places.

(2.)

The direction of the shock in different places.

(3.)

The time the shock was felt at different places.

The first kind of evidence will give us true results so far as it goes, and when an earthquake has originated in a well-populated and civilised country this method can be relied on; but when an earthquake originates under the sea or in a thinly-inhabited district it cannot lead to very accurate results. The second and third kinds of evidence are liable to many sources of error; but if all erroneous observations could be eliminated, the remainder would give a much closer approximation to the truth than can, in the cases supposed, be got from the first kind of evidence.

In our case the earthquake originated in a district not only very thinly populated, but one very difficult to examine—so much so that the only accurate observations that have been made are along one line—from west to east; all the country to the north, west, and south of the place of origin being as yet unexamined. This being so, it is obvious that

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observations on the intensity of the shock cannot do more than give us a rough approximation to the position of the epicentrum; nevertheless, this approximation, although rough, will be undoubtedly correct so far as it goes, and will thus enable us to discard evidently erroneous observations of the second and third class of evidence. I shall therefore begin with the evidence of the first class.

Intensity of the Shock at Different Places.—The intensity of shock can be roughly estimated by the damage done to buildings, or to glass and crockery on shelves; but great anomalies occur locally (which will be considered later on), and it is only by taking a comprehensive view that we can arrive at any results. There is no difficulty in concluding that where wooden houses have been wrenched out of shape the shock has been more intense than where chimneys only have suffered. But there are great differences in chimneys—in proportions, in supports, in construction, and in materials—and we cannot make any close comparison between them. Bottles and crockery on shelves are, however, under more similar conditions, and afford a better comparison than chimneys in estimating the relative intensity of the shock. Fissures and landslips also afford good evidence when the conditions are tolerably equal.

From the record of facts already given it will be seen that Glynn Wye, on the River Hope, appears to have sustained the greatest shock. It is the only place where wooden houses have been wrenched out of shape; and here the fissures and landslips are greater than elsewhere.

Glass and crockery were thrown off shelves at Waikari, Rangiora, Reefton, Westport, Greymouth, Marsden, Notown, Kumara, and Hokitika, all being within a radius of seventy miles from Glynn Wye.

Chimneys were thrown down or damaged at Kaikoura and Christchurch, within a radius of eighty miles of Glynn Wye; and slight damages are reported from Ashburton and Nelson, each about a hundred miles from Glynn Wye.

At further distances no damage was done to buildings. The greatest damage, however, does not take place at the epicentrum, where the shock is vertical, but where the direction of the wave makes an angle of between 55° and 45° with the horizon; consequently the position of the epicentrum would probably be somewhere to the west of the meridian of Glynn Wye; and Mr. O. Thompson, the manager, says that the shock passed to the eastward, down the valley, with a hoarse crashing sound which gradually died away in the distance, while things were quiet at the place where he stood. At Reefton no chimneys were thrown, so that the shock there must have been less than at the Hanmer Plains. This may have

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been due in part to the intervening ranges of mountains, but it prevents us locating the epicentrum very far west of Glynn Wye.

If we assume that the meizoseimic band extended three miles on either side of Glynn Wye, and that the angle of emergence was 55° on the western edge of this belt and 45° on the eastern edge, it would indicate that the epicentrum was about seventeen miles from Glynn Wye, and about twenty miles below the surface.

Mr. A. McKay, in his report, says that he is of opinion that the shock “commenced at some point to the west of Glynn Wye, perhaps further west than the junction of the Kiwi with the Hope, and that it travelled eastward with increasing force to Glynn Wye and Hopefield, beyond which places, by what appears at the surface, its destructive character began to be less.” The junction of the Hope and the Kiwi is fourteen miles west of Glynn Wye.

Direction of the Shock at Different Places.—Reports under this head vary extremely, even from the same place, and in the absence of seismographs no accurate results can be expected. It is known from observation that the normal wave is followed by a transverse wave, and that afterwards the ground oscillates irregularly; so that, even if the direction be estimated right, it would be impossible to distinguish the normal from the transverse wave. Even accurate observations may often give a wrong direction. For example: The movement of cream in a pan at Rangiora gave S.W. and N.E. as the direction. At Ohoka the same kind of seismometer registered the shock as E.S.E. and W.N.W. At Ashburton a lamp was seen to swing east and west. In Christchurch water was thrown out of buckets in different directions in the same building, although in the majority of cases it was to the N.W. In fact things in general seem to have been thrown away from a wall without much reference to the shock. In the Canterbury Museum some unsupported table-legs in the Indian case fell to the east; but I found that the shelf on which they stood had a slight slope in this direction. All these and many others must be rejected as pointing far out of the direction of the normal wave; and, indeed, but little weight can be attached to this kind of evidence at all: but, as it is quite independent of all other evidence, it may be worth while to find out what results it leads to.

At Wellington the seismograph is reported in the newspapers as registering the shock N.E. and S.W.; at Christchurch the cathedral-spire is octagonal, and the cross fell over to the side facing N.W. This no doubt shows roughly the true direction of the shock, but it might have come from any point between W.N.W. and N.N.W. I will take it at N.W.

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The other places from which I have records pointing more or less in the true direction are—Greymouth, E. and W.; Notown, S.E. to N.W.; Westport, S.E. to N.W.; Reefton, S.E. to N.W.; Boatman's, first shock E. and W., second S.E. to N.W.; Lyell, S. to N., or S.E. to N.W.; Nelson, S.W. to N.E.; Blenheim, S.W. to N.E.; Kaikoura, N.N.W. to S.S.E.; Waikari, N. and S.; Leeston, N. and S.; and Kirwee, N. and S.; or fourteen stations in all. I have also ten other stations, in which the directions given are too wide of the mark to be of any use. They are—Rangiora, S.W. to N.E.; Ohoka, E.S.E. to W.N.W.; Ashburton, E. and W.; Lauriston, S.E. to N.W.; Glentunnel, E. and W.; Timaru, between W. and N.; Queenstown, N.W. to S.E.; Dunedin, E. to W.; Invercargill, W. to E.; Manaia, S. to N. (nearly correct).

If we project the fourteen fairly accurate directions on a map, and then describe the smallest circle possible which will touch or cut all the lines, it comes out that the circle has a radius of about thirty miles, and its centre is situated at the Amuri Pass, at the head of the Doubtful and Ahaura Rivers, about seventeen and a half miles W.N.W. of Glynn Wye. This approximation is nearer the truth than could have been expected.

Time of the Shock at Different Places.—Time-observations are subject to error from the clock not showing correct time, from incorrect readings, and from observations being taken at different periods of the shock. The first source of error is got over by comparing the clock with telegraph-time as soon as possible after the shock. When a clock is stopped by the earthquake the second source of error is eliminated; but the first and third remain. If, however, the time of the shock is correctly given to the nearest minute, and the stations, are sufficiently distant from each other, fairly accurate determinations may be made from them; and experience has shown that in a civilised country, with telegraphs and railways, these time-observations are of great value. The following are the times reported:—

H. M.
New Plymouth 4 15
Manaia 4 10
Wanganui 4 10
Feilding 4 10
Masterton 4 15
Wellington 4 15
Nelson 4 12
Havelock 4 15
Blenheim 4 15
Kaikoura 4 12
Hanmer Plains 4 12?
Waikari 4 13
Rangiora 4 12
Christchurch 4 12
Lyttelton 4 13
Akaroa 4 10
Selwyn 4 15
Lauriston 4 13
Ashburton 4 13.5
Leeston 4 20
Kirwee 4 23
Bealey 4 10
Fairlie Creek 4 12
Timaru 4 11
Lyell 4 11
Westport 4 10
Boatman's 4 8
Reefton 4 10
Notown 4 11
Greymouth 4 10
Hokitika 4 12
Queenstown 4 10?
Dunedin 4 15
Invercargill 4 15

A cursory inspection of this list will show that many of

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the localities must be rejected as too inaccurate. After careful consideration, and from information obtained, I judge the following eight places to give the most trustworthy records for the purpose of discovering the epicentrum—viz., Christchurch, Ashburton, Lauriston, Kaikoura, Bealey, Boatman's, Westport, and Greymouth.

I first tried to draw coseimal lines; but found the data far too meagre for any useful purpose.

I next attempted to find the position of the epicentrum by the method of straight lines,* using three pairs—viz., Westport and Greymouth, Greymouth and Bealey, Christchurch and Kaikoura. By this means, on the Government map of twenty-five miles to the inch, I found the position of the epicentrum to be in the Upper Grey, six or seven miles west of Lake Christabel, or five to six miles north-west of the Amuri Pass.

I then tried the method of circles, with the following results, all being taken on the twenty-five-miles-to-the-inch map. Greymouth, Ashburton, and Kaikoura gave it in the Upper Grey, near Lake Christabel; Bealey, Boatman's, and Christchurch gave it one mile north of Lake Christabel; Bealey, Christchurch, and Kaikoura gave it between Lake Christabel and the Amuri Pass; Greymouth, Boatman's, and Kaikoura, half-way between Lake Christabel and the Amuri Pass. All these localities lie within a circle the radius of which is five miles, and the centre about four miles N.E. of the Amuri Pass. I subsequently obtained a more recent and accurate map, on a scale of eight miles to the inch, and on trying on this the stations Greymouth, Boatman's, and Kaikoura, I found that it gave the position four miles more to the S.E. than the twenty-five-miles-to-the-inch map: thus putting the position of the epicentrum between three and four miles E. of the Amuri Pass, or fourteen miles W.N.W. of Glynn Wye.

Taking all these different methods into consideration, I conclude that the epicentrum was not of an elongated form, but more or less circular, with a radius of perhaps five miles, and the centre a little east of Amuri Pass and about sixteen miles W.N.W. from Glynn Wye.

[Footnote] * For this and the following methods, see Milne's “Earthquakes,” International Scientific Series, p. 200.